Wednesday, 6 July 2011

Omg am I gonna make this daily updates thing a habit?

I'm actually finding time to blog about my day. I guess I'm recovering well from my recent bout of despondency. A little too well I think. Ellana and I played spies in the library today. Okay, I played spy in the library today. It was a simple reconnaissance mission. Someone had stolen the Financial Economics study manual from the shelf and was perusing it conspicuously at the back of the library. Hah! Little did he know that he was being watched. *evil-fighting-super sleuth eye*

Anyway I don't have much time to blog because I'm having tuition at 4.30.

Oh my god I never knew anyone who's eviler than the Survival Models lecturer la. She was so evil. She decided that torturing students with an additional test on top of the TWO tests (THREE for some) they are gonna have next week was the lesser evil compared to torturing students with FIVE tests in the following week. Well it is. But she didn't have to torture us right? She could have had the test on Friday or something. But no. She "doesn't work" on Fridays. She could have the test in Week 9. But no. "There's an event on Monday, Week 9 and most of the students in the lecture class are involved in the event." She could have it on Wednesday, Week 9. But no. She "won't have any time to mark the papers before the next test" it seems. The next test is on Week 12 by the way. Seeing how she "doesn't work" on Fridays you'd think she'd utilise her weekend properly right? Well she doesn't think so. We suggested Saturday but all we got was a plain and simple "No". So now I regret not studying ANYTHING the past two nights because Loss Models is a killer and I know nothing about Portfolio Management to grant me a chance to attempt any of the questions in the Mid Term. Die la.

Urgh. Oh well. As Jordan's said before. At least there's pie. I dunno what that means. But the fact that pie exists should provide some comfort for those who are faced with the impending doom that is Loss Models, Portfolio Management, and Survival Models, the Mid Term trifecta for academically induced misery.

Kill me now. That's not the worst thing. When I entered Life Contingencies I tutorial, I realised that I'd better start finding religion and fast because this course aint getting any easier. It's going in the other direction, at maximum speed. Let me show you what Life Contingencies is all about. I shall relate it to a simple equation:

y = x + 2

This equation is far too simple to draw conclusions from. Let us expand this using (mind you, NOT RANDOM) numbers which we should know must be used to get the expected result.

y + 4 = x + 2 + 4

y + 4 -15 = x + 2 + 4 - 15

-z + y + 4 - 15 = -z + x + 2 + 4 - 15

-z + y -9 = -z + x - 6

-z + y = -z + x + 3

Now that you've brought another variable into the picture we need to solve that first.

Using some simple formula that you'd probably never guessed you could have used you get:

z = x + a + b - 7 + u

Oh look. We don't know the values of a, b, and u. Let's expand that shall we?

-5 + z = -5 + x + a + b - 7 + u

-5 + z = -12 + x + a + b + u

And from some formula stated in the footnote of the appendix in page 789 of the textbook, you'll realise that in fact x - 12 = a + b. So:

-5 + z = 2 (a + b) + u

And using the formula on page 231 of the textbook and through careful observation of the time diagram you'll see that 2 (a + b) + u = 0. So:

z = 5

But that's not your answer. You still have x and y to find.

-z + y = -z + x + 3

If you had a keen eye, you'd have realised that in the lecture notes the lecturer has included the fact that z and y can be related. So, through a series of simultaneously solved equations involving formulas that we can find on page 576 of the textbook, we can solve to get x and consequently y.

x = 0.33429095859

y= 78.4459003882

Let this be a warning to those who would like to do the course.

No comments: